Post-Brexit Western Relation
Boris Johnson is going to deliver Brexit most likely. Following the ‘Queen’s Speech’ that gave Mr. Johnson the mandate of closing the parliament, different actions from different groups have been noticed across cities in the United Kingdom. Joyous Brexiters and annoyed Remainers.
‘No Deal Brexit’ is a political divorce, and a move that requires a lot of courage. No one can precisely narrate the consequences positive or negative that comes with it; what commentators like me could do is only predictions and wait for fate. With Brexit, Britain politics has changed rapidly within a quarter decade. With the emergence of new political parties like the Brexit party together with the rise of politicians like the Brexit party leader and the leading pro No Deal Brexiter like Nigel Farage, Theresa May, the former P.M and a Fair Deal Brexiter and his successor Boris Johnson who seem to be pushing for a No Deal Brexit. Should a No-Deal Brexit be delivered, would be beginning of another different chapter and description of British politics and UK as a union united by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. But will Brexit affect positively or negatively the relationship of the western world
Britain leaving the European Union is one move lots of people may think has only simple social effects like migration, unity with EU Remainers, and trade. What if it goes beyond that, what if it affects the relationship of western nations.
Britain is the 5th world economy with the GDP growth of $ 546,076 million and military strength of approximately 190,000, making the UK of significance to the Union economically. Military wise it has been acting as a bridge of the US to the EU due to their longtime relationship. Even with the great nations like Germany and France remaining, Britain’s absence would live behind a void that would be felt just like the German Chancellor said it on her speech at the EU parliament in France. She quoted, “The Britain exit is deep a wound.” With the excuse of exploitation, UK has vowed to leave without a deal as a way of winning back sovereignty. With no agreement, they will be capable of doing their activities as a Sovereign state without any continental or economic block restrictions like the refugee’s crisis and mass casualty terrorism which has been one of the EU challenges in the past half a decade. Still on sovereignty and exploitation, British MEPs especially the pro-Brexiters led by Nigel Farage believes the EU is under German control. This was evident when he accused Angela Markel of being the reason for Brexit. He went ahead calling EU a German-dominated and warned that Britain wouldn’t pay for chancellor Markel’s errors. Digging deep into the history books far from the portmanteau, Britain and Germany has always been opponents in every world war, could this be a cold war for European superiority, could Germany be truly controlling the EU, who is Ursula Von der Leyen, what would be the fate of EU in post Brexit and why would the Union need a military despite NATO? Questions you should ask yourself.
As I started, post-Brexit may be a hard bit for the western nations to swallow especially the Remainers. A suspected tactical move by the French president Emmanuel Macron to recognize Russia as a very profoundly European country last week when he hosted Vladimir Putin Russian president. Macron went ahead by championing Russia’s EU membership when he claimed that Russia’s isolation from European affairs would be a profound error. European continent will never be stable or secure without Russia. He added a powerful French man.
Britain having a significant economic strength, their exit could leave a financial gap on the European Union. A void could be hard to replace Britain being the 5th world economy, Macron’s words could suggest an alternative replacement on the military and a little of economic gap Russia being ranked 6th economy by the World Bank in 2017. Worried about the continent’s insecurity without Russia the second-largest army and the first in Europe, Macron calling for EU military for protection some years back could be a clue or a suggestion of him justifying Moscow’s membership to the EU in replacement of Britain. The UK is the bitter enemy of Russia in the continent following the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in England that made the Russian government the suspect. The incident went too far, even affecting their diplomatic relationship.
With the EU ambitions of building a military, the British were to be the face of the EU army. A vision that encountered and lost to the unexpected hijack by the infamous Brexit. To avoid depending on the USA and ability to make an independent decision, the Union needed an army that would be the world most powerful, a statement made by Emmanuel Macron and backed by her counterpart Markel. A request which may appear new but not really. The 68 years old move suggested by the Green German party spokesperson Agnieszka Brugger and the French Prime Minister Alain Juppe in 1996. Macron in a TV interview supported the army which he said would protect the Union from China, Russia, and the US. Withdrawal of the US from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) became a threat to the European nation. A missile test by the Americans was regarded as chaotic, and Moscow promised to answer with the support of various European countries, that became an excuse for the military necessity. With the departure of Britain from the Union, American commitment on the European continent would be limited. The relationship between the US and the UK can be traced back deep in history as great allies and even family. For the Union to stand firm economically and military-wise, Russia could be the best and preferred candidate, especially when rallying against the United States of America.
Projected Stumbling of NATO
Most of the NATO members belong to the EU with the exception of Canada, USA, Turkey, and the UK maybe after a successful Brexit. With Turkey’s recent close ties with Russia on the purchasing of S-400 with the first batch of supply delivered in July. Purchasing of highly effective Russian surface to Air missile (SAMs) a missile system criticized by Washington of being incompatible with NATO system and a military threat. Dominating the headlines for nearly two years now, S-400 has an impressive value of air defense with a capability to strike at different targets mainly aircraft, cruise, ballistic missile and many other capabilities not mentioned. Even though opposed by NATO members, Turkey is suspected on a new deal of dumping Americas’ F-35 for Russian made Su-35 and Su-57 amid US standoff. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stand on the deal as a national sovereignty and rebellious moves against NATO and Washington might cause the nation their membership which may not be a threatening message to Turkey which is a proclaimed ally to the world strongest man Vladimir Putin making Ankara drift towards Moscow’s sphere of influence.
German’s relationship with Russia of late has not been bad from their defense on dropping of the Malaysian plane where the Washington concluded by blaming Russia while Berlin cleared Russia innocent. Secondly, the Nord Stream 2 a $10.6 billion pipeline project (a done deal between Russia, Germany and other EU nations) derailing through the heart of Europe and to the north of Germany, making Berlin a host of Russian asset despite several warnings from John F Kennedy, Ronald Regan and now Donald Trump. The current Nord Stream 2 project is a threat to the US with the fear of NATO allies and the European nations depending on Russia’s energy. Angela Markel being a pro-EU military, may consider Russia joining the Union. Moscow joining the Union can be a big blow and the end of NATO which was formed mainly to watch over Russia’s activities in Eastern Europe. But what are the terms and conditions of winning Moscow a conservative state in such western liberal principled organization, the fate of Britain if a ‘No Deal Brexit’ succeeds. Those are our next topic in the next article don’t miss.
Everything written in this article are personal assumptions and commentary, any suggestion or compliment are accepted in the comment section. Thank you for your attention, you are highly appreciated.